Luego de las elecciones, los analistas intentan explicar Por Qué pasó lo que ocurrió trabajando sobre hechos consumados y eso no es análisis; Es una interpretación que requiere mucho menos conocimiento y afinamiento con la realidad, que el análisis político realizado previo a los hechos.
El análisis político exige trabajar en escenarios y tomar decisiones informadas para elaborar sobre el escenario que se percibe como más afinado con la realidad y, sobre todo, atreverse a publicarlo.
El analista político no es climatólogo para elaborar sobre tendencias y probabilidades más o menos obvias pero que si están erradas siempre se justifican por lo imprevisible, ni futurólogo para soñar escenarios posibles y deseables, ni un publicista camuflado; Es esencialmente un lector de escenarios que debe optar por una posición y expresarla aunque esa posición sea discutida o reclamada como parcializada. Eso siempre será así.
Finalmente los hechos posteriores al análisis son los que mostrarán cuál análisis estuvo más acertado; Y en un País donde lo que hace falta son buenos lectores de la realidad oculta, eso es lo más importante.
El 11A ganaron:
1. Obviamente el Ecuador que reclama paz, alternabilidad y transparencia en la gestión pública con verdad, justicia y reparacion en un clima de respeto al ciudadano, libertades y equilibrio de poderes. Confianza y Esperanza.
2. Los analistas, encuestadores y politólogos serios que investigaron y se arriesgaron a mostrar la verdad que reflejaban sus estudios. Credibilidad.
3. La tesis de desarrollo y progreso con libertad y los estrategas que supieron canalizar apropiadamente el mensaje. Equipo de trabajo de Lasso.
4. Lasso quien tiene la oportunidad de mostrar la validez y realidad de sus tesis y propuestas; Y que exhibe uno de los principales atributos de los triunfadores en política: Persistencia para llegar.
No vamos a decir que el gran triunfador fue el Ecuador, pues eso aún está por verse y no depende de los analistas sino de cada uno de nosotros.
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